Overview of Express Entry’s First Half of 2023 – A Look Ahead

The Canada Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) draws over the past six months have been a crucial turning point in the nation’s immigration system. The draws under PNP invited international graduates, skilled workers, and businesspeople to various provinces around the nation.

The number of invites granted to qualified candidates during the PNP drawings increased significantly in the first half of 2023. However, after an unexpected six-week hiatus, 2023 began less predictably. A total of 5,500 candidates were invited to the first draw of the year on January 11, which was more applicants than in any one round in 2022. Since then, draw sizes have varied, reaching highs of 7,000 ITAs in three consecutive draws in March and lows of 589 ITAs on May 10.

Number of ITAs to Date

A total of 58,849 ITAs have been distributed by Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) thus far in 2023. This already exceeds the 35,750 ITAs issued between July 6 and November 23, 2022, by a wide margin.

• The year 2023 got off to a fast start with 11,000 ITAs distributed over two draws, whereas 4,892 ITAs were distributed over three draws in February.
• In terms of invitations, March witnessed the second-highest number in Express Entry history. In four draws, ITAs were given to 21,667 hopefuls.
• The draws in April and May were more typical of pre-pandemic times. 7,000 candidates in total were invited over two draws in April.
• While 5,389 candidates were invited over two draws in May.

CRS Results

The year’s minimum CRS scores have likewise fluctuated greatly. For instance, the lowest CRS score to date in 2023 was 476 for the first-ever category-based draw on June 28 and the highest CRS score was 791 for a PNP-only draw on February 15. The majority of other drawings held over the previous six months had a minimum CRS cut-off score in the range of 485 to 490. Moreover, the broad range in CRS scores is probably caused by the various draw types.

PNP Draws Frequency

There is no predetermined timetable that IRCC must follow for Express Entry drawings. The draws are conducted at the minister of immigration’s discretion, who is free to arrange draws and invite however many applicants they feel necessary.

Draw types in 2023

Candidates from three economic immigration programs are taken into consideration in an all-program Express Entry draws. While the majority of draws have taken into account applicants from all Express Entry-managed programs, there have also been four draws that have only included applicants from the Provincial Nominee Programme, the first-ever draw restricted to the Federal Skilled Worker Program took place on February 2, and the first category-based lottery happened on June 28.

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Looking Ahead: Category-Based Selection and Other Notable Express Entry Developments

The IRCC declared on May 31 that category-based selection drawings would start later this summer.  500 healthcare professionals will receive ITAs in the first round of Express Entry invitations under the new category-based selection process, Canada’s Minister of Immigration Sean Fraser stated on June 28. On the same day, the IRCC revealed that the week of July 5 would see Express Entry drawings for qualified STEM applicants.

In accordance with the new categories, IRCC will strive to achieve the targets for admissions of permanent residents set forth in the immigration levels plan for the years 2023–2025. The categories are in line with the mandate of the minister of immigration, who wants to promote francophone immigration in French-speaking minority populations outside of Quebec and use immigration to strengthen Canada’s workforce.

It will be especially important to focus on the second half of 2023 in order to meet the 2024 goal of 109,020 new permanent residence admissions through Express Entry. Given that the IRCC has a service requirement of six months for processing permanent resident applications under Express Entry programs, invitations sent out later this year might not be counted as admissions until 2024.