Canada’s Population Hits 41.8 Million As Growth Slows Sharply

Canada’s population reached an estimated 41,798,407 on July 1, 2026, growing by 80,343 people, or 0.2 percent, during the second quarter. Permanent immigration drove nearly all the growth, while year-over-year population growth slowed to 0.5 percent, the lowest July-to-July rate recorded in over a century. Statistics Canada’s latest quarterly estimates put the country’s population at 41,798,407 as of July 1, 2026. That reflects growth of 80,343 people over the second quarter of the year, a 0.2 percent increase. On a year-over-year basis, growth slowed to 0.5 percent, the slowest July-to-July pace recorded in more than a hundred years of data.

Where The Growth Came From

Permanent immigration remained the primary engine of population growth, adding 99,148 newcomers during the quarter. Natural increase, meaning births minus deaths, contributed a further 12,959 people. Those gains, however, were partly offset by a drop in the non-permanent resident population, which fell by 18,875 people as fewer international students and work permit holders remained in the country. Combined, these movements explain why overall growth landed at a modest 0.2 percent for the quarter despite immigration numbers that remained fairly robust on their own.

Why The Slowdown Is Notable

A 0.5 percent year-over-year growth rate stands out because it’s the slowest Canada has recorded for this particular July-to-July window in over a century. That’s a significant shift after several years in which Canada posted some of the fastest population growth rates among G7 countries, driven largely by high levels of temporary immigration. The current slowdown reflects a deliberate policy shift toward reducing the non-permanent resident population, alongside more measured permanent immigration targets.

How The Estimates Work

These figures are preliminary and will be revised through Statistics Canada’s standard annual update process, as they have been for decades. They build on 2021 Census counts, adjusted for undercoverage, with population changes added for the period since May 11, 2021. They should not be confused with the 2026 Census population counts, which are scheduled for release on February 10, 2027, and will offer a more complete, ground-truth picture once available.

Estimates can shift in later revisions for a few technical reasons, including timing gaps between the expiry of one non-permanent resident permit and the issuance of the next, or the arrival of late birth and death registrations and more complete tax-based migration data in subsequent years.

What This Means Looking Forward

For newcomers and prospective immigrants, a slower overall growth rate driven by fewer non-permanent residents, alongside steady permanent immigration, suggests Canada’s population strategy is shifting toward emphasizing permanent pathways over temporary ones. That shift could shape everything from provincial nomination priorities to housing and labour market planning in the months ahead, as governments recalibrate policy around a more measured pace of growth.

Canada’s population clock, an interactive tool maintained by Statistics Canada, has also been updated with this latest data, giving Canadians a real time sense of the pace of the country’s demographic change.

Comparing This Quarter To Recent Years

The 0.2 percent quarterly growth rate stands in contrast to the faster pace Canada posted through much of 2022 and 2023, when a surge in temporary residents pushed population growth to some of the highest levels recorded in decades. The current numbers suggest that surge has fully unwound, replaced by a more measured trajectory built primarily around permanent immigration rather than temporary arrivals. Whether this pace holds, accelerates, or slows further over the coming quarters will depend heavily on how non-permanent resident numbers evolve, since that category has been the most volatile piece of the population equation in recent years.

Why Permanent Immigration Still Leads

Even with growth slowing overall, permanent immigration remains the single largest contributor to population change this quarter, adding roughly 99,000 people, more than seven times the contribution from natural increase. That underscores how central permanent immigration has become to Canada’s demographic trajectory at a time when birth rates remain relatively low and an aging population limits the potential for natural increase to drive growth on its own.

What To Watch In The Next Release

The next quarterly estimates, along with revisions to earlier periods, will show whether the non-permanent resident decline continues at a similar pace or begins to stabilize as international student and work permit volumes settle into a new normal. Combined with the full 2026 Census results due in February 2027, the coming months should offer a much clearer, more complete picture of exactly how Canada’s population is shifting after several years of unusually rapid change.

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