Study Finds Immigrant Fertility Gap in Canada Has Narrowed Significantly

A new study examining fertility patterns in Canada has found that the difference between immigrant and Canadian-born fertility rates has narrowed considerably over the past 2 decades. Using census and National Household Survey data from 2001 to 2021, researchers found that immigrants continued to have higher fertility than Canadian-born residents overall, but the gap fell from 0.24 births per woman in 2001 to 0.11 in 2021.

The findings provide a more detailed look at how fertility varies among immigrant groups. The study examined differences based on age at migration, immigration stream and country of origin. It suggests that immigration can continue to support Canada’s labour force and population growth, but immigration alone may not resolve the country’s longer-term demographic challenges.

What Did the Study Examine?

The research used Canada’s long-form census data from 2001, 2006, 2016 and 2021, along with the 2011 National Household Survey.

Researchers used the “Own Infant Method” to estimate total fertility rates for different population groups. The analysis looked at women aged 15 to 49 and examined whether infants could be linked to their mothers within census families.

The researchers compared:

• Immigrants and Canadian-born residents
• First-generation and 1.5-generation immigrants
• Economic, family and refugee immigrants
• Temporary residents
• Immigrant women from Canada’s top 10 source countries

This approach highlights why it can be misleading to treat immigrants as a single demographic group.

Immigrants Still Had Higher Fertility Overall

The study found that immigrant fertility remained higher than fertility among Canadian-born residents throughout the period examined.

However, the difference became much smaller.

In 2001, the total fertility rate for immigrants was 1.68, compared with 1.44 for Canadian-born Canadians. By 2021, immigrant fertility had fallen to 1.42, while fertility among Canadian-born Canadians was 1.31.

This reduced the gap from 0.24 births per woman to 0.11.

The findings show that immigrant fertility declined more quickly than fertility among Canadian-born Canadians over the period studied.

Fertility Also Depends on Age at Migration

One of the study’s notable findings concerns the age at which immigrants came to Canada.

Women who immigrated after age 15, described in the study as first-generation immigrants, had a total fertility rate of around 2.0 between 2001 and 2016. That rate declined to 1.75 in 2021.

The pattern was different among immigrants who arrived in Canada at age 15 or younger.

These 1.5-generation immigrants consistently had lower fertility than first-generation immigrants. Their fertility rate ranged from 1.36 to 1.46 between 2001 and 2016 and declined to 1.25 in 2021.

The researchers suggest that people who arrive at younger ages may be more likely to adopt social and family patterns associated with the country where they grow up.

Fertility Varies by Immigration Stream

The study also found substantial differences between Canada’s immigration categories.

Among permanent immigrants, family stream immigrants had the highest fertility, while economic immigrants had the lowest.

In 2016, the total fertility rates were:

• Economic immigrants: 1.47
• Family stream immigrants: 2.18
• Refugees: 1.78

By 2021, the rates were:

• Economic immigrants: 1.32
• Family stream immigrants: 1.97
• Refugees: 1.77

Temporary residents had the lowest rate among the groups examined, falling from 1.17 in 2016 to 0.96 in 2021.

These differences may reflect factors such as age, family circumstances, employment, economic conditions and immigration status.

Why Economic Immigrants Had Lower Fertility

The research points to several possible explanations for the lower fertility observed among economic immigrants.

Economic immigrants are generally selected based on factors such as education, work experience, language ability and occupational skills. These individuals may prioritize establishing their careers and achieving financial stability after arriving in Canada.

The study also notes that higher educational attainment and stronger labour market attachment can influence when people have children.

However, the findings describe patterns rather than proving that a particular factor directly causes lower fertility.

Family Immigrants Recorded the Highest Rate

Family stream immigrants had the highest fertility among permanent immigrant categories examined in the study.

Their total fertility rate was 2.18 in 2016 and 1.97 in 2021.

The researchers note that family immigration includes people arriving through family reunification, including spouses and certain parents, grandparents and children.

Family immigrants may differ from economic immigrants in terms of household structure and reasons for migration, which can influence family formation and childbearing patterns.

Refugee Fertility Remained Relatively Higher

Refugees also recorded higher fertility than economic immigrants.

Their total fertility rate was 1.78 in 2016 and 1.77 in 2021.

The study notes that refugees come from diverse backgrounds and may have different demographic characteristics from economic and family immigrants.

At the same time, researchers caution that fertility patterns can change after migration because of factors such as settlement conditions, family separation, employment and the cost of living.

Temporary Residents Had the Lowest Fertility

Temporary residents recorded a particularly low fertility rate in the study.

Their total fertility rate declined from 1.17 in 2016 to 0.96 in 2021.

The researchers suggest that temporary status may influence family decisions. People living in Canada temporarily may face uncertainty about their long-term future, may be separated from partners or may have work or study commitments that make starting a family more difficult.

These findings are particularly relevant as Canada has experienced significant growth in temporary residents in recent years, although the study’s fertility analysis only extends through 2021.

Fertility Among Major Source Countries Has Also Changed

The research found substantial changes among immigrant women from Canada’s leading source countries.

By 2021, women from all 10 of the top source countries examined had below-replacement fertility in Canada.

The rates varied considerably. The study reported a total fertility rate of 0.75 for Iranian women and 0.92 for Chinese women, while Pakistani women had the highest rate among the groups at 1.70.

The researchers also compared fertility among immigrant women in Canada with fertility rates in their countries of birth.

For most of the major source countries examined, fertility among immigrant women in Canada was lower than fertility in their countries of origin.

This suggests that migration and settlement in Canada can be associated with changes in family formation patterns.

What Does This Mean for Canada’s Demographic Future?

Canada has experienced persistently low fertility, creating challenges related to population ageing and labour-force growth.

Immigration has therefore played an important role in supporting population growth and replenishing the workforce.

However, the study suggests that the demographic contribution of immigration should not be assessed simply by looking at the number of newcomers entering Canada.

Fertility patterns among newcomers also change over time, and different immigration categories produce different demographic outcomes.

The researchers conclude that immigration remains important for Canada’s workforce and population, but it is unlikely to provide a complete long-term solution to demographic pressures by itself.

Immigration Policy and Population Growth

The findings could contribute to ongoing discussions about Canada’s immigration policies and future immigration levels.

Policymakers may need to consider several factors when assessing the long-term demographic impact of immigration, including:

• The age of newcomers
• Immigration category
• Family composition
• Labour force participation
• Settlement patterns
• Long-term retention
• Fertility trends

The study does not suggest that one immigration stream should replace another. Instead, it demonstrates the considerable demographic differences that exist within Canada’s immigrant population.

A More Detailed Picture of Canada’s Immigrant Population

One of the study’s most important contributions is its focus on variation within the immigrant population.

The results show that first-generation immigrants, people who arrived at younger ages, economic immigrants, family immigrants, refugees and temporary residents can have very different fertility patterns.

The decline in the overall fertility gap also demonstrates that immigrant fertility is not static.

Between 2001 and 2021, immigrant fertility fell from 1.68 to 1.42, while Canadian-born fertility declined from 1.44 to 1.31.

As Canada continues to rely on immigration for population and labour-force growth, these demographic trends provide important evidence for policymakers considering the country’s long-term population strategy.

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