Express Entry
Canada Express Entry Draw Prediction 2025 – What to Expect in Next Draw
Canada’s immigration system has undergone major shifts in 2025, and nowhere is this more apparent than in the latest Express Entry trends. With reduced immigration targets, tighter draw sizes, and the growing weight of category-based selections, many candidates are wondering: what’s next?
Following the latest Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draw on May 13, 2025, where only 500 invitations were issued at a staggering CRS cut-off of 547, expectations are building for the next Express Entry draw. Let’s break down what could happen next and how you can prepare.
Canada’s 2025 Express Entry Landscape: A Quick Recap
Before we predict the upcoming draw, let’s look at the big picture in 2025:
- Immigration Targets Are Down: Canada has trimmed its PR goal from 485,000 (2024) to 395,000 (2025).
- CEC Is In Focus: In-Canada candidates dominate the Express Entry stream, with 9,350 CEC-specific ITAs issued by May 7, 2025.
- CRS Scores Remain High: The recent CEC cut-off of 547 shows how competitive the pool has become.
With over 852,000 PR applications already in processing and fewer draws taking place, only the most strategically positioned candidates are receiving invitations.
What Categories Are Likely in the Next Express Entry Draw?
IRCC has yet to conduct a category-based draw in May. That makes it likely the next round, possibly between May 27–30, 2025, will target one of the following:
1. Healthcare Occupations
Canada continues to experience labor shortages in healthcare. The last draw (May 2, 2025) issued 500 ITAs with a CRS of 510. If repeated, expect:
- CRS Cut-Off: Around 490–510
- ITA Range: 500–1,000
2. French Language Proficiency
These draws help Canada meet its Francophone targets outside Quebec (aiming for 10% by 2027). The March 21, 2025, draw saw:
- CRS Cut-Off: 379
- ITA Volume: 7,500
Expect similar or even slightly lower scores in the next draw if French is the focus.
3. Skilled Trades
Although rare, trade-focused draws are expected to rise due to demand in construction and manufacturing.
- CRS Prediction: 450–470
- Invitations: Likely around 1,000
These categories offer hope to candidates who may not score high enough under the general draws.
What’s Happening With CEC and PNP Draws?
Canadian Experience Class (CEC) – While the May 13 draw focused on CEC, such draws are likely to return after a pause of a few weeks. High scores (above 500) will remain the norm due to:
- Fewer ITAs issued
- Strong competition from in-Canada applicants
- Emphasis on language proficiency and work experience
Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) – PNP draws have slowed due to the government halving the PNP quota from 110,000 (2024) to 55,000 (2025). Although still biweekly, they now invite smaller numbers and have high cut-offs (e.g., 763 on April 14, 2025).
What Changed in 2025? Key Policies to Know
Here are major changes that reshaped the Express Entry system this year:
| Policy Change | Impact |
| Job Offer Points Removed | No longer adds 50–200 CRS points |
| Category-Based Draws | Now dominate Express Entry |
| Reduced PNP Quotas | Fewer nominations, higher CRS cut-offs |
| Smaller Draw Sizes | Makes each invitation more competitive |
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1. Is CRS expected to drop in 2025?
Unlikely. Most draws are seeing higher cut-offs due to fewer invitations and stronger profiles in the pool. However, French or trade-based draws may offer lower thresholds.
Q2. When is the next Express Entry draw?
Expect the next draw between May 27–30, 2025, based on IRCC’s biweekly rhythm.
Q3. What’s a good CRS score right now?
- French Proficiency: 360–380
- Trades: 450–470
- Healthcare: 490–510
- CEC/General: 540+
Q3. Can I get PR with a 400 CRS score?
It’s tough in general draws, but if you qualify for French language or trades categories, you may have a real chance.
Express Entry CEC Draw Remains Highly Competitive in 2025
While Canada’s immigration strategy is becoming more selective, it’s also more strategic. The Express Entry CEC draw and other category-based selections are designed to match economic needs. As a result, the focus has shifted from volume to value, favoring those with Canadian experience, in-demand skills, or French fluency.
To increase your odds:
- Consider learning French
- Gain additional work experience in Canada
- Explore provincial nomination options
The next draw may favor you—if your profile is well-aligned with Canada’s priorities.
